Liberia vs Mali: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liberiavs
MaliThe model puts Mali at 65%. The model leans toward Mali. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Mali.
- +The head-to-head record favours Mali (1-2-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liberia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mali have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liberia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mali is priced at 1.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Liberia at 12%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Mali at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Mali. Liberia is priced at 7.2. The draw is priced at 3.92. Mali is priced at 1.46.
Liberia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Mali have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liberia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mali have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liberia or Mali?
Our model rates Mali as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liberia vs Mali?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Liberia wins, 2 draws, 2 Mali wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.