Germany vs Serbia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Germanyvs
SerbiaThe model puts Germany at 73%. The model leans toward Germany. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Germany.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Serbia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Germany have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Germany is priced at 1.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Germany at 73%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Serbia at 9%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Germany. Germany is priced at 1.3. The draw is priced at 5.45. Serbia is priced at 9.8.
Germany have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Serbia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Germany have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Serbia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Germany or Serbia?
Our model rates Germany as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Germany vs Serbia?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Germany wins, 1 draws, 1 Serbia wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Belgium | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Turkey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.