Wales vs Norway: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Walesvs
NorwayThe model puts Norway at 61%. The model leans toward Norway. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Norway.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Norway have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wales have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Norway is priced at 1.595.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Wales at 17%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Norway at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Norway. Wales is priced at 5.2. The draw is priced at 4.24. Norway is priced at 1.595.
Wales have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Norway have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Wales have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Norway have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wales or Norway?
Our model rates Norway as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wales vs Norway?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Wales wins, 3 draws, 1 Norway wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Belgium | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Turkey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.