Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Freiburgvs
VfL WolfsburgThe model puts Freiburg at 64%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours VfL Wolfsburg.
- +The head-to-head record favours Freiburg (8-3-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Freiburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Freiburg is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Freiburg at 64%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Freiburg is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.75. VfL Wolfsburg is priced at 6.26.
Freiburg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Wolfsburg have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Freiburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Wolfsburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Freiburg or VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Freiburg wins, 3 draws, 4 VfL Wolfsburg wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.