Sevilla vs Barcelona: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sevillavs
BarcelonaThe model puts Barcelona at 67%. The model leans toward Barcelona. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sevilla (10-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sevilla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Barcelona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sevilla have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Barcelona is priced at 1.345.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sevilla at 15%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Barcelona at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Barcelona. Sevilla is priced at 8.4. The draw is priced at 5.2. Barcelona is priced at 1.345.
Sevilla have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Barcelona have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sevilla have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Barcelona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sevilla average 2 goals per game this season. Sevilla average 49% possession.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 39% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sevilla or Barcelona?
Our model rates Barcelona as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Barcelona?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Sevilla wins, 3 draws, 2 Barcelona wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 3 | Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.