Aston Villa vs Brentford: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aston Villavs
BrentfordThe model puts Aston Villa at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Aston Villa are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Brentford are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Aston Villa have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aston Villa will be without Goretzka, Maatsen I., Onana.
- Brentford will be without Furo, Dasilva P., Damsgaard, Jensen M., Collins N.M., Ouatarra, Van den Berg S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Aston Villa at 37%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Brentford at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Aston Villa is priced at 2.625. The draw is priced at 3.5. Brentford is priced at 2.584.
Aston Villa have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Brentford have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Aston Villa have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Aston Villa are on 3 wins in a row. Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Brentford are on 2 wins in a row.
Aston Villa average 1 goals per game this season. Aston Villa average 46% possession. Brentford average 2 goals per game this season. Brentford average 48% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aston Villa or Brentford?
Our model rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Aston Villa wins, 5 draws, 6 Brentford wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.