Coventry City vs Newcastle United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Coventry Cityvs
Newcastle UnitedThe model puts Newcastle United at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Newcastle United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Coventry City (11-2-2).
- +Coventry City are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Newcastle United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Coventry City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coventry City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Coventry City will be without Woolfenden, Awoniyi, Amenda, Kesler-Hayden, Latibeaudiere J., Wright H., Eccles J..
- Newcastle United will be without Jaouen, Osula, Burn D., Joelinton, Livramento V., Ramsey J., Elanga.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Coventry City at 32%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Newcastle United at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Newcastle United. Coventry City is priced at 3.17. The draw is priced at 3.56. Newcastle United is priced at 2.19.
Coventry City have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Newcastle United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Coventry City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Newcastle United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Newcastle United are on 3 wins in a row.
Coventry City average 0 goals per game this season. Coventry City average 50% possession. Newcastle United average 2 goals per game this season. Newcastle United average 46% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Coventry City or Newcastle United?
Our model rates Newcastle United as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Coventry City vs Newcastle United?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Coventry City wins, 2 draws, 2 Newcastle United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Coventry City
- 2Pinnock Et.
- 3DaSilva J.
- 4Thomas Bo.
- 5Rudoni J.
- 6Grimes M.
- 12Mfuni
- 16Onyeka
- 17Tchaouna
- 19Rushworth
- 23Thomas-Asante
- 27van Ewijk M.
- Woolfenden (Missing Player)
- Awoniyi (Missing Player)
- Amenda (Missing Player)
- Kesler-Hayden (Questionable)
- Latibeaudiere J. (Questionable)
- Wright H. (Missing Player)
- Eccles J. (Missing Player)
Newcastle United
- 3Hall
- 4Botman
- 6Gonzalez
- 9Wissa Y.
- 11Barnes H.
- 12Thiaw M.
- 21Hornicek
- 23Murphy Jac.
- 28Willock
- 37Dedic
- 67Miley
- Jaouen (Missing Player)
- Osula (Questionable)
- Burn D. (Questionable)
- Joelinton (Questionable)
- Livramento V. (Questionable)
- Ramsey J. (Questionable)
- Elanga (Missing Player)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:5 | 15 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 6 |  Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 7 |  Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 8 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:3 | 9 |
| 9 |  Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 8 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 19 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1:10 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.