Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Crystal Palacevs
Nottingham ForestThe model puts Crystal Palace at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Crystal Palace.
- +The head-to-head record favours Crystal Palace (6-8-1).
- −Crystal Palace are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Nottingham Forest are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Crystal Palace have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Crystal Palace will be without Disasi A., Mateta, Riad Ch., Tomiyasu, Henderson D..
- Nottingham Forest will be without da Cruz I., Milenkovic N., Savona, Williams.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Crystal Palace at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Nottingham Forest at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Crystal Palace is priced at 2.816. The draw is priced at 3.3. Nottingham Forest is priced at 2.53.
Crystal Palace have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Nottingham Forest have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Crystal Palace have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Crystal Palace are on 2 wins in a row. Nottingham Forest have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Crystal Palace average 2 goals per game this season. Crystal Palace average 36% possession. Nottingham Forest average 2 goals per game this season. Nottingham Forest average 38% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Crystal Palace or Nottingham Forest?
Our model rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Crystal Palace wins, 8 draws, 1 Nottingham Forest wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Crystal Palace
- 3Mitchell
- 6Canvot
- 10Jesus Pino Santos Ye.
- 18Kamada
- 20Wharton
- 21Ahanor
- 22Larsen J. S.
- 23Timber
- 25Khalaili
- 26Richards Chr.
- 44Benitez W.
- Disasi A. (Missing Player)
- Mateta (Missing Player)
- Riad Ch. (Missing Player)
- Tomiyasu (Missing Player)
- Henderson D. (Missing Player)
Nottingham Forest
- 2Diomande
- 5Murillo
- 10Gibbs-White M.
- 14Ndoye
- 19Delap
- 21Schlager X.
- 23Cunha
- 24McAtee
- 25Netz
- 26Sels
- 27Munoz D.
- da Cruz I. (Missing Player)
- Milenkovic N. (Missing Player)
- Savona (Missing Player)
- Williams (Questionable)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:5 | 15 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 6 |  Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 7 |  Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 8 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:3 | 9 |
| 9 |  Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 8 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1:10 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.