St. Louis City vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
TorontoThe model puts St. Louis City at 59%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Toronto.
- +St. Louis City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (15 vs 11 shots per game).
- −St. Louis City are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Toronto are dealing with notable absentees.
- +St. Louis City controls more of the ball (54% vs 46%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City will be without Ault P., Celio Pompeu, Hiebert.
- Toronto will be without Mihailovic Dj., Palacio, Stefanovic, Osorio J..
- St. Louis City is priced at 1.625.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 59%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Toronto at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 1.625. The draw is priced at 4.34. Toronto is priced at 4.84.
Toronto have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 54% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 46% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Toronto?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 St. Louis City wins, 0 draws, 1 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
St. Louis City
- 1Burki R.
- 6Wallem
- 8Durkin
- 9Navarro
- 14Totland
- 19Holse
- 21Polvara
- 23Matan A.
- 24Edelman
- 32Baumgartl
- 99Orozco
- Ault P. (Questionable)
- Celio Pompeu (Missing Player)
- Hiebert (Missing Player)
Toronto
- 1Gavran
- 3Pereira Mat.
- 6Dorsch
- 9Sargent
- 11Etienne D.
- 13Kuscevic
- 14Coello
- 20Salloi D.
- 22Laryea
- 25Zimmerman
- 71Cimermancic
- Mihailovic Dj. (Missing Player)
- Palacio (Missing Player)
- Stefanovic (Questionable)
- Osorio J. (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.