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Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Sporting Kansas Cityvs

Philadelphia Union

Our predictionPhiladelphia Union to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 0-2

The model puts Philadelphia Union at 65%. Philadelphia Union have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
+Philadelphia Union score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
+Philadelphia Union creates more chances (11 vs 16 shots per game).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
+Sporting Kansas City are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Sporting Kansas City16%

Draw19%

2 · Philadelphia Union65%

1 · Sporting Kansas CityDraw2 · Philadelphia Union

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Philadelphia Union1.51+2.6%

1X2Draw4.74-1.2%

1X2Sporting Kansas City5.55-1.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Sporting Kansas CityWLLLD

Philadelphia UnionWWWWD

Team strength rating

Sporting Kansas City

Philadelphia Union

Most likely scorelines

0-212.6%

0-112.2%

1-29.6%

1-19.3%

0-38.6%

1-36.6%

Expected goals

0.77Sporting Kansas City

2.06Philadelphia Union

Over 2.5 goals54%

Both teams to score47%

Match DNA

Sporting Kansas City Philadelphia Union

Key points

Philadelphia Union are on 4 wins in a row.
Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season.
Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Philadelphia Union win1.51Fair (+2.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	12	13	9	4	2
1	5	9	10	7	3	1
2	2	4	4	3	1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

Philadelphia Union have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union are on 4 wins in a row.

Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union take 16 shots per game. Sporting Kansas City take 11 shots per game.

Philadelphia Union have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.

Sporting Kansas City will be without Blorian O., Davis Ja, James, Bassong, Wolff. Philadelphia Union will be without N'Dinga.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or Philadelphia Union?

Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 5 Sporting Kansas City wins, 4 draws, 6 Philadelphia Union wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchSullivanPhiladelphia Union9.1