Celta vs Racing de Santander: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Celtavs
Racing de SantanderThe model puts Celta at 47%. The model leans toward Celta. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Racing de Santander.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Celta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Racing de Santander have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celta is priced at 1.904.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Celta at 47%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Racing de Santander at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Celta. Celta is priced at 1.904. The draw is priced at 3.58. Racing de Santander is priced at 4.
Celta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Racing de Santander have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Celta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Racing de Santander have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Racing de Santander average 2 goals per game this season. Racing de Santander average 41% possession.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Celta or Racing de Santander?
Our model rates Celta as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Celta vs Racing de Santander?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Celta wins, 5 draws, 4 Racing de Santander wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 | Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 15 |  Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 16 | Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 2 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.