Villarreal vs Levante UD: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Villarrealvs
Levante UDThe model puts Villarreal at 54%. The model leans toward Villarreal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Levante UD.
- +The head-to-head record favours Villarreal (9-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Villarreal have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levante UD have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villarreal have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Villarreal is priced at 1.736.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Villarreal at 54%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Levante UD at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Villarreal. Villarreal is priced at 1.736. The draw is priced at 3.86. Levante UD is priced at 4.58.
Villarreal have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Levante UD have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Villarreal have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Levante UD have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Villarreal average 2 goals per game this season. Villarreal average 59% possession. Levante UD average 0 goals per game this season. Levante UD average 46% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Villarreal or Levante UD?
Our model rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Levante UD?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Villarreal wins, 2 draws, 4 Levante UD wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 | Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 15 |  Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 | Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 2 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.