Getafe vs Malaga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Getafevs
MalagaThe model puts Getafe at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Getafe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Getafe have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Getafe is priced at 2.216.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27 | 13 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 22 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Getafe at 43%. The model puts the draw at 34%. The model puts Malaga at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Getafe is priced at 2.216. The draw is priced at 2.888. Malaga is priced at 3.9.
Getafe have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Malaga have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Getafe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Getafe average 0 goals per game this season. Getafe average 48% possession. Malaga average 0 goals per game this season. Malaga average 47% possession.
The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 15% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Getafe or Malaga?
Our model rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Getafe vs Malaga?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Getafe wins, 2 draws, 6 Malaga wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 | Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 15 |  Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 | Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 2 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.