Estrela da Amadora vs Academico de Viseu: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estrela da Amadoravs
Academico de ViseuThe model puts Estrela da Amadora at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Estrela da Amadora (7-3-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Estrela da Amadora have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Academico de Viseu have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estrela da Amadora have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Estrela da Amadora is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Estrela da Amadora at 44%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Academico de Viseu at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Estrela da Amadora is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.42. Academico de Viseu is priced at 3.13.
Estrela da Amadora have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Academico de Viseu have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Estrela da Amadora have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Academico de Viseu have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Estrela da Amadora average 2 goals per game this season. Estrela da Amadora average 44% possession. Academico de Viseu average 2 goals per game this season. Academico de Viseu average 38% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estrela da Amadora or Academico de Viseu?
Our model rates Estrela da Amadora as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estrela da Amadora vs Academico de Viseu?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 7 Estrela da Amadora wins, 3 draws, 3 Academico de Viseu wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 | Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 | Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.