Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vitoria Guimaraesvs
MoreirenseThe model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 59%. The model leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Vitoria Guimaraes (7-5-3).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vitoria Guimaraes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitoria Guimaraes have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.665.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 26 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 59%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Moreirense at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.665. The draw is priced at 3.78. Moreirense is priced at 5.3.
Vitoria Guimaraes have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Moreirense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vitoria Guimaraes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vitoria Guimaraes average 0 goals per game this season. Vitoria Guimaraes average 58% possession. Moreirense average 0 goals per game this season. Moreirense average 49% possession.
The model gives 19% for both teams to score. The model gives 15% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vitoria Guimaraes or Moreirense?
Our model rates Vitoria Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Vitoria Guimaraes wins, 5 draws, 3 Moreirense wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.