Santa Clara vs Braga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santa Claravs
BragaThe model puts Braga at 46%. The model leans toward Braga. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Santa Clara.
- +The head-to-head record favours Braga (3-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Santa Clara have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Clara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Braga is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santa Clara at 27%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Braga at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Braga. Santa Clara is priced at 3.84. The draw is priced at 3.28. Braga is priced at 2.05.
Santa Clara have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Braga have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Santa Clara have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Clara are on 2 wins in a row. Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Santa Clara average 2 goals per game this season. Santa Clara average 52% possession. Braga average 2 goals per game this season. Braga average 64% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santa Clara or Braga?
Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Braga?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Santa Clara wins, 3 draws, 9 Braga wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 | Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.