Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Arouca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Clube de Portugalvs
AroucaThe model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 74%. The model leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sporting Clube de Portugal.
- −The head-to-head record favours Arouca (1-2-12).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Clube de Portugal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arouca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 74%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Arouca at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 5.85. Arouca is priced at 12.
Sporting Clube de Portugal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Arouca have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Clube de Portugal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Arouca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Clube de Portugal average 3 goals per game this season. Sporting Clube de Portugal average 56% possession. Arouca average 1 goals per game this season. Arouca average 42% possession.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Clube de Portugal or Arouca?
Our model rates Sporting Clube de Portugal as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Clube de Portugal vs Arouca?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Sporting Clube de Portugal wins, 2 draws, 12 Arouca wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.