1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. FSV Mainz 05vs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
- −The head-to-head record favours 1. FSV Mainz 05 (10-3-2).
- +1. FSV Mainz 05 are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bayer 04 Leverkusen are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 will be without Ruoppi, Widmer, Kohr D., Nebel Pa., Silas, Zentner.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen will be without Culbreath, Eichhorn, Kofane, Doue G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 33%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. 1. FSV Mainz 05 is priced at 3.13. The draw is priced at 3.72. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 2.15.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are on 4 wins in a row.
1. FSV Mainz 05 average 1 goals per game this season. 1. FSV Mainz 05 average 53% possession. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2 goals per game this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 65% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. FSV Mainz 05 or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 1. FSV Mainz 05 wins, 3 draws, 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.