Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Borussia Dortmundvs
Werder BremenThe model puts Borussia Dortmund at 66%. The model leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Werder Bremen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Werder Bremen (2-5-8).
- −Borussia Dortmund are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Werder Bremen are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Borussia Dortmund have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund will be without Karetsas, Lerma, Can E., Konstantelias, Calixte Mane, Ryerson, Chukwuemeka C..
- Werder Bremen will be without Alvero, Musah, Topp K., Agu F., Njinmah, Lynen, N'Diaye, Stage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 66%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Werder Bremen at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 1.335. The draw is priced at 5.35. Werder Bremen is priced at 8.4.
Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Werder Bremen have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Borussia Dortmund have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Werder Bremen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Borussia Dortmund average 3 goals per game this season. Borussia Dortmund average 55% possession. Werder Bremen average 1 goals per game this season. Werder Bremen average 50% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Borussia Dortmund or Werder Bremen?
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Borussia Dortmund wins, 5 draws, 8 Werder Bremen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.