AS Monaco vs Toulouse: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AS Monacovs
ToulouseThe model puts AS Monaco at 59%. The model leans toward AS Monaco. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AS Monaco.
- −The head-to-head record favours Toulouse (3-4-8).
- −AS Monaco are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AS Monaco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toulouse have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AS Monaco have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AS Monaco will be without Brunner, Coulibaly, Idumbo Muzambo.
- Toulouse will be without Vignolo.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AS Monaco at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Toulouse at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward AS Monaco. AS Monaco is priced at 1.584. The draw is priced at 4.28. Toulouse is priced at 5.25.
AS Monaco have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Toulouse have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
AS Monaco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Toulouse have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
AS Monaco average 2 goals per game this season. AS Monaco average 43% possession. Toulouse average 2 goals per game this season. Toulouse average 55% possession.
The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AS Monaco or Toulouse?
Our model rates AS Monaco as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AS Monaco vs Toulouse?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 AS Monaco wins, 4 draws, 8 Toulouse wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.