Croatia vs England: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Croatiavs
EnglandThe model puts England at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Croatia.
- −The head-to-head record favours Croatia (7-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Croatia have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Croatia have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- England is priced at 1.99.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Croatia at 34%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts England at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward England. Croatia is priced at 3.17. The draw is priced at 4.24. England is priced at 1.99.
Croatia have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. England have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Croatia have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Croatia are on 5 wins in a row. England have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Croatia or England?
Our model rates England as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Croatia vs England?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 7 Croatia wins, 1 draws, 3 England wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.