RC Lens vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
RC Lensvs
LyonThe model puts Lyon at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lyon.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +RC Lens are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Lyon are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- RC Lens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RC Lens have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- RC Lens will be without Hazard T., Nawrocki, Sima, Todibo, Chaves.
- Lyon will be without Himbert, Ouedraogo, Niakhate, Tagliafico.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts RC Lens at 36%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Lyon at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. RC Lens is priced at 2.57. The draw is priced at 3.58. Lyon is priced at 2.6.
RC Lens have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Lyon have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
RC Lens have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
RC Lens average 3 goals per game this season. RC Lens average 55% possession. Lyon average 1 goals per game this season. Lyon average 48% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, RC Lens or Lyon?
Our model rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for RC Lens vs Lyon?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 RC Lens wins, 3 draws, 6 Lyon wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.