Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bournemouthvs
Aston VillaThe model puts Bournemouth at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Aston Villa.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bournemouth have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bournemouth is priced at 2.184.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bournemouth at 42%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Aston Villa at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market leans toward Bournemouth. Bournemouth is priced at 2.184. The draw is priced at 3.52. Aston Villa is priced at 3.2.
Bournemouth have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Aston Villa have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bournemouth have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth are on 3 wins in a row. Aston Villa have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Aston Villa are on 4 wins in a row.
Bournemouth average 4 goals per game this season. Bournemouth average 68% possession. Aston Villa average 3 goals per game this season. Aston Villa average 57% possession.
The model gives 89% for both teams to score. The model gives 93% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bournemouth or Aston Villa?
Our model rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 4 Bournemouth wins, 3 draws, 6 Aston Villa wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.