Liverpool vs Chelsea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
ChelseaThe model puts Liverpool at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liverpool.
- +The head-to-head record favours Liverpool (6-6-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chelsea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool is priced at 2.784.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 39%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Chelsea at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Liverpool is priced at 2.784. The draw is priced at 3.64. Chelsea is priced at 2.38.
Liverpool have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Chelsea have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Liverpool are on 3 wins in a row. Chelsea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Liverpool average 3 goals per game this season. Liverpool average 43% possession. Chelsea average 4 goals per game this season. Chelsea average 58% possession.
The model gives 90% for both teams to score. The model gives 93% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Chelsea?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Liverpool wins, 6 draws, 3 Chelsea wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.