Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Real Salt LakeThe model puts Seattle Sounders at 51%. The model leans toward Seattle Sounders. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Seattle Sounders score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Seattle Sounders (8-3-4).
- +Seattle Sounders creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.035.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 51%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Real Salt Lake at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Seattle Sounders. Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.035. The draw is priced at 3.78. Real Salt Lake is priced at 3.36.
Seattle Sounders have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Salt Lake have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Salt Lake have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 50% possession. Real Salt Lake average 1 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 49% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Real Salt Lake?
Our model rates Seattle Sounders as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Seattle Sounders wins, 3 draws, 4 Real Salt Lake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.