New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
St. Louis CityThe model puts New York Red Bulls at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +New York Red Bulls score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours St. Louis City.
- +New York Red Bulls creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.565.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 40%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts St. Louis City at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. New York Red Bulls is priced at 2.565. The draw is priced at 3.88. St. Louis City is priced at 2.46.
New York Red Bulls have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New York Red Bulls are on 2 wins in a row. St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City are on 2 wins in a row.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 49% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or St. Louis City?
Our model rates New York Red Bulls as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 New York Red Bulls wins, 1 draws, 1 St. Louis City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.