San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Jose Earthquakesvs
Portland TimbersThe model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 49%. The model leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +San Jose Earthquakes score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Portland Timbers.
- +San Jose Earthquakes creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.984.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 49%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Portland Timbers at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.984. The draw is priced at 3.9. Portland Timbers is priced at 3.42.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Portland Timbers have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Portland Timbers have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 51% possession. Portland Timbers average 1 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 50% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Jose Earthquakes or Portland Timbers?
Our model rates San Jose Earthquakes as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 San Jose Earthquakes wins, 2 draws, 6 Portland Timbers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 11 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 29:63 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.