Real Sociedad vs Deportivo de A Coruna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
Deportivo de A CorunaThe model puts Real Sociedad at 54%. The model leans toward Real Sociedad. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Real Sociedad are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Deportivo de A Coruna are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Sociedad will be without Aramburu, Oscarsson, Odriozola.
- Deportivo de A Coruna will be without Casado, Aubameyang, Eddahchouri.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 54%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad is priced at 1.725. The draw is priced at 3.8. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 4.74.
Real Sociedad have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo de A Coruna have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo de A Coruna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo de A Coruna average 1 goals per game this season. Deportivo de A Coruna average 39% possession.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 28% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Deportivo de A Coruna?
Our model rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo de A Coruna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Real Sociedad wins, 5 draws, 4 Deportivo de A Coruna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.