Elche vs Celta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elchevs
CeltaThe model puts Celta at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Celta.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Elche are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Celta are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Elche have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elche have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Elche will be without Redondo, Santiago.
- Celta will be without Antanon, Abdellaoui, Roman, Starfelt.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Elche at 31%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Celta at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Elche is priced at 2.99. The draw is priced at 3.26. Celta is priced at 2.425.
Elche have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Celta have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Elche have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Celta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Celta are on 2 wins in a row.
Elche average 1 goals per game this season. Elche average 61% possession.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 27% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elche or Celta?
Our model rates Celta as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elche vs Celta?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Elche wins, 3 draws, 5 Celta wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Elche
- 1Dituro
- 3Revivo
- 6Bigas
- 11Valera G.
- 12Villar
- 14Nino
- 18Lemar
- 21Cepeda
- 22Sanchez
- 23Chust Vic.
- 47Jon Morcillo
- Redondo (Missing Player)
- Santiago (Missing Player)
Celta
- 3Alonso Mar.
- 5Carreira
- 6Kourouma
- 9Jutlga F.
- 13Radu I.
- 14Febas
- 15Nunez A.
- 16Gonzalez
- 17Rueda
- 18Lago
- 23Alvarez
- Antanon (Missing Player)
- Abdellaoui (Missing Player)
- Roman (Missing Player)
- Starfelt (Missing Player)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 9 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 11 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 8 |
| 15 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing de Santander | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:17 | 5 |
| 19 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.