Racing de Santander vs Valencia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Racing de Santandervs
ValenciaThe model puts Racing de Santander at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Valencia are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Racing de Santander have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valencia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Racing de Santander have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Racing de Santander will be without Eriksson.
- Valencia will be without Canos, Lopez, Rioja L., Umar, Foulquier.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Racing de Santander at 42%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Valencia at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Racing de Santander is priced at 2.32. The draw is priced at 3.44. Valencia is priced at 3.016.
Racing de Santander have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Valencia have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Racing de Santander have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Valencia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Racing de Santander average 2 goals per game this season. Racing de Santander average 41% possession.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Racing de Santander or Valencia?
Our model rates Racing de Santander as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Racing de Santander vs Valencia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Racing de Santander wins, 4 draws, 5 Valencia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.