Ayr United vs Stenhousemuir: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ayr Unitedvs
StenhousemuirThe model puts Ayr United at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stenhousemuir.
- −The head-to-head record favours Stenhousemuir (2-3-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ayr United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ayr United is priced at 2.16.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ayr United at 39%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Stenhousemuir at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ayr United. Ayr United is priced at 2.16. The draw is priced at 3.06. Stenhousemuir is priced at 3.16.
Ayr United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Stenhousemuir have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ayr United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stenhousemuir have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Stenhousemuir are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ayr United or Stenhousemuir?
Our model rates Ayr United as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ayr United vs Stenhousemuir?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 2 Ayr United wins, 3 draws, 8 Stenhousemuir wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11:2 | 19 |
| 2 |  Raith Rovers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:3 | 14 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 4 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 5 |  Livingston | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 6 | Ayr United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Arbroath | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Inverness | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:11 | 4 |
| 10 |  Greenock Morton | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4:13 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.