Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Plymouth Argylevs
Burton AlbionThe model puts Plymouth Argyle at 64%. The model leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Plymouth Argyle.
- +Plymouth Argyle score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Plymouth Argyle creates more chances (11 vs 8 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Plymouth Argyle are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Burton Albion are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Burton Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Plymouth Argyle have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Plymouth Argyle will be without Baidoo M., Boateng M..
- Burton Albion will be without O'Mahony, Evans G.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Plymouth Argyle at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Burton Albion at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Plymouth Argyle is priced at 1.53. The draw is priced at 4.25. Burton Albion is priced at 5.54.
Plymouth Argyle have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Burton Albion have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Plymouth Argyle are on 4 wins in a row. Burton Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Plymouth Argyle average 2 goals per game this season. Plymouth Argyle average 42% possession. Burton Albion average 1 goals per game this season. Burton Albion average 33% possession.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Plymouth Argyle or Burton Albion?
Our model rates Plymouth Argyle as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Plymouth Argyle wins, 6 draws, 4 Burton Albion wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Plymouth Argyle
- 1Cooper
- 5Pleguezuelo
- 7White
- 9Evans W.
- 11Curtis R.
- 14Irow
- 15Mitchell
- 19Bakinson
- 27Pepple A.
- 29Sorinola
- 45Harding W.
- Baidoo M. (Missing Player)
- Boateng M. (Missing Player)
Burton Albion
- 3Armer J.
- 4Chauke K.
- 6Sibbick
- 8Webster
- 15Lofthouse
- 16Tilt
- 17Borges
- 18Vickers C.
- 26Delap
- 34Addai
- 41Krubally
- O'Mahony (Missing Player)
- Evans G (Questionable)
League table
England. League One| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bradford City | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7:4 | 15 |
| 2 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 14 |
| 3 | Plymouth Argyle | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 4 |  Huddersfield Town | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:6 | 12 |
| 5 |  Cambridge United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 6 |  Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 11 |
| 7 |  Wimbledon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 11 |
| 8 |  Reading | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | 10 |
| 9 |  Stockport County | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 16:10 | 10 |
| 10 |  Leyton Orient | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:9 | 10 |
| 11 |  Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:8 | 9 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Leicester City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Wycombe Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:14 | 9 |
| 15 |  Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 16 |  Luton Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 17 |  Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 18 |  Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:12 | 8 |
| 19 |  Bromley | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 20 |  Notts County | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 21 |  Doncaster Rovers | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 22 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8:10 | 6 |
| 23 |  Peterborough United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4:12 | 5 |
| 24 |  Wigan Athletic | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:12 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.