Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nottingham Forestvs
ArsenalThe model puts Arsenal at 61%. The model leans toward Arsenal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Arsenal (3-2-10).
- +Recent form favours Arsenal.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Nottingham Forest have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Arsenal is priced at 1.605.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nottingham Forest at 16%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Arsenal at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Arsenal. Nottingham Forest is priced at 5.85. The draw is priced at 3.84. Arsenal is priced at 1.605.
Nottingham Forest have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nottingham Forest have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nottingham Forest or Arsenal?
Our model rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Nottingham Forest wins, 2 draws, 10 Arsenal wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:5 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10:4 | 9 |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 7 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 8 |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7:11 | 6 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1:10 | 3 |
| 19 |  Fulham | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | 2 |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.