Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heracles Almelovs
VitesseThe model puts Heracles Almelo at 58%. The model leans toward Heracles Almelo. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Vitesse (3-4-8).
- −Heracles Almelo are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Heracles Almelo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitesse have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heracles Almelo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heracles Almelo will be without Bozhinovski, Borges Sanches.
- Heracles Almelo is priced at 1.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Heracles Almelo at 58%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Vitesse at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Heracles Almelo. Heracles Almelo is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 4.4. Vitesse is priced at 4.855.
Heracles Almelo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Vitesse have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Heracles Almelo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Vitesse have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Heracles Almelo or Vitesse?
Our model rates Heracles Almelo as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Heracles Almelo vs Vitesse?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Heracles Almelo wins, 4 draws, 8 Vitesse wins.
Match statistics
Heracles Almelo
- 1De Keijzer
- 4Mirani
- 5van der Kust D.
- 7Abbas
- 14Wrusch
- 15Vicente
- 17van Gilst
- 18Hauswirth
- 25Rodriguez M. A.
- 27N'Djoli
- 32Scheperman
- Bozhinovski (Missing Player)
- Borges Sanches (Missing Player)
Vitesse
- 1Van den Bergh
- 6Schikora M.
- 9Bannis N.
- 14Achouitar
- 16Dabo
- 17Zumberi
- 20Де Карвальо
- 21Sellouf
- 24Markelo N.
- 33Marschalk
- 43Olde Keizer
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  VVV-Venlo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 4 |  Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:9 | 13 |
| 5 | Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 8 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Emmen | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 10 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 11 |  NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Volendam | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Oss | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.