Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Middlesbroughvs
Wolverhampton WanderersThe model puts Middlesbrough at 48%. The model leans toward Middlesbrough. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Middlesbrough score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Middlesbrough creates more chances (19 vs 15 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Middlesbrough controls more of the ball (62% vs 56%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Middlesbrough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wolverhampton Wanderers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Middlesbrough is priced at 2.13.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Middlesbrough at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Wolverhampton Wanderers at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough is priced at 2.13. The draw is priced at 3.6. Wolverhampton Wanderers is priced at 3.105.
Middlesbrough have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Wolverhampton Wanderers have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Middlesbrough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Wolverhampton Wanderers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Middlesbrough average 3 goals per game this season. Middlesbrough average 62% possession. Wolverhampton Wanderers average 2 goals per game this season. Wolverhampton Wanderers average 56% possession.
The model gives 76% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Middlesbrough or Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Our model rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Middlesbrough wins, 1 draws, 6 Wolverhampton Wanderers wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.