Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Charlton Athleticvs
Bristol CityThe model puts Bristol City at 46%. The model leans toward Bristol City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bristol City.
- +Bristol City score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Bristol City creates more chances (12 vs 16 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Charlton Athletic have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bristol City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlton Athletic have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bristol City is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Charlton Athletic at 27%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Bristol City at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Charlton Athletic is priced at 3.135. The draw is priced at 3.24. Bristol City is priced at 2.26.
Charlton Athletic have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Bristol City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Charlton Athletic have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Bristol City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Charlton Athletic average 1 goals per game this season. Charlton Athletic average 44% possession. Bristol City average 2 goals per game this season. Bristol City average 44% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Charlton Athletic or Bristol City?
Our model rates Bristol City as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Charlton Athletic wins, 3 draws, 6 Bristol City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.