West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
West Bromwich Albionvs
Birmingham CityThe model puts West Bromwich Albion at 45%. The model leans toward West Bromwich Albion. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +West Bromwich Albion score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours West Bromwich Albion.
- +West Bromwich Albion controls more of the ball (59% vs 46%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- West Bromwich Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Birmingham City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- West Bromwich Albion have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- West Bromwich Albion is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts West Bromwich Albion at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Birmingham City at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. West Bromwich Albion is priced at 2.28. The draw is priced at 3.4. Birmingham City is priced at 2.962.
West Bromwich Albion have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Birmingham City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
West Bromwich Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Birmingham City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
West Bromwich Albion average 2 goals per game this season. West Bromwich Albion average 59% possession. Birmingham City average 1 goals per game this season. Birmingham City average 46% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, West Bromwich Albion or Birmingham City?
Our model rates West Bromwich Albion as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 West Bromwich Albion wins, 4 draws, 6 Birmingham City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.