Preston North End vs Millwall: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Preston North Endvs
MillwallThe model puts Millwall at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Millwall score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Millwall (1-6-8).
- +Millwall creates more chances (13 vs 16 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Preston North End have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Millwall have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Preston North End have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Millwall is priced at 2.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Preston North End at 32%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Millwall at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Preston North End is priced at 2.73. The draw is priced at 3.34. Millwall is priced at 2.44.
Preston North End have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Millwall have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Preston North End have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Millwall have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Preston North End average 1 goals per game this season. Preston North End average 45% possession. Millwall average 2 goals per game this season. Millwall average 47% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Preston North End or Millwall?
Our model rates Millwall as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Preston North End vs Millwall?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Preston North End wins, 6 draws, 8 Millwall wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.