Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bolton Wanderersvs
Stoke CityThe model puts Bolton Wanderers at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Stoke City.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Bolton Wanderers controls more of the ball (54% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bolton Wanderers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stoke City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bolton Wanderers have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bolton Wanderers is priced at 2.52.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bolton Wanderers at 37%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Stoke City at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Bolton Wanderers is priced at 2.52. The draw is priced at 3.28. Stoke City is priced at 2.68.
Bolton Wanderers have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Stoke City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bolton Wanderers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bolton Wanderers are on 2 wins in a row. Stoke City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Stoke City are on 2 wins in a row.
Bolton Wanderers average 1 goals per game this season. Bolton Wanderers average 54% possession. Stoke City average 1 goals per game this season. Stoke City average 45% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bolton Wanderers or Stoke City?
Our model rates Bolton Wanderers as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Bolton Wanderers wins, 4 draws, 6 Stoke City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Birmingham City | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich City | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 |  Derby County | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston North End | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.