MVV Maastricht vs Helmond Sport: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
MVV Maastrichtvs
Helmond SportThe model puts MVV Maastricht at 47%. The model leans toward MVV Maastricht. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Helmond Sport.
- +The head-to-head record favours MVV Maastricht (8-3-4).
- −MVV Maastricht are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- MVV Maastricht have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- MVV Maastricht have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- MVV Maastricht will be without Tehubijuluw, Timber, Hofland.
- MVV Maastricht is priced at 1.95.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts MVV Maastricht at 47%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Helmond Sport at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward MVV Maastricht. MVV Maastricht is priced at 1.95. The draw is priced at 3.65. Helmond Sport is priced at 3.415.
MVV Maastricht have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Helmond Sport have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
MVV Maastricht have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Helmond Sport have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, MVV Maastricht or Helmond Sport?
Our model rates MVV Maastricht as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for MVV Maastricht vs Helmond Sport?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 MVV Maastricht wins, 3 draws, 4 Helmond Sport wins.
Match statistics
MVV Maastricht
- 1Wentges
- 5Schenk
- 6Dicke
- 7Lennerd D.
- 10Dumont
- 16Klaasen
- 17van der Wegen
- 18Sierra El.
- 21Asante
- 22Bulan
- 24El Hamdaoui
- Tehubijuluw (Missing Player)
- Timber (Questionable)
- Hofland (Questionable)
Helmond Sport
- 1Bergsen M.
- 4Koglin
- 5Poll
- 6Ludewig
- 7Sluijs
- 9Bajrami
- 11Cicero
- 19Ingason
- 20Dekkers
- 43Landheer
- 44van der Velde
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  VVV-Venlo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 4 |  Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 6 | MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 8 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Emmen | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 10 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 11 |  NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Volendam | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 9 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Oss | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.