Roda JC Kerkrade vs Waalwijk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Roda JC Kerkradevs
WaalwijkThe model puts Roda JC Kerkrade at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Roda JC Kerkrade (8-2-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Waalwijk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roda JC Kerkrade have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Roda JC Kerkrade will be without Zakarya KhaldiIllness.
- Waalwijk will be without Zorgdrager.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Roda JC Kerkrade at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Waalwijk at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Roda JC Kerkrade is priced at 2.46. The draw is priced at 3.44. Waalwijk is priced at 2.57.
Roda JC Kerkrade have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Waalwijk have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Waalwijk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Roda JC Kerkrade or Waalwijk?
Our model rates Roda JC Kerkrade as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Roda JC Kerkrade vs Waalwijk?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Roda JC Kerkrade wins, 2 draws, 5 Waalwijk wins.
Match statistics
Roda JC Kerkrade
- 1Treichel
- 3Tol M.
- 4Nisbet J.
- 5Jansen
- 6Paulissen
- 8Mensah
- 9van den Hurk
- 11Dorenbosch
- 14van den Berg
- 15Beerten
- 24Deom
- Zakarya KhaldiIllness (Questionable)
Waalwijk
- 1Schiks
- 4Van Gelderen L.
- 5Familio-Castillo
- 6Postma
- 7Fage
- 8Nap Jo.
- 10Van Leeuwen
- 20Varela
- 27Stokkers F.
- 30Wijs
- 33Al Mazyani
- Zorgdrager (Questionable)
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  VVV-Venlo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 4 | Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 8 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Emmen | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 10 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 11 |  NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Volendam | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Oss | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.