Ukraine vs Northern Ireland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ukrainevs
Northern IrelandThe model puts Ukraine at 52%. The model leans toward Ukraine. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ukraine (3-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ukraine have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ukraine have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ukraine is priced at 1.85.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ukraine at 52%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Northern Ireland at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ukraine. Ukraine is priced at 1.85. The draw is priced at 3.44. Northern Ireland is priced at 4.5.
Ukraine have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Northern Ireland have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ukraine have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Northern Ireland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ukraine or Northern Ireland?
Our model rates Ukraine as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ukraine vs Northern Ireland?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Ukraine wins, 2 draws, 1 Northern Ireland wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Slovenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.