Malvern Town vs Gloucester City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Malvern Townvs
Gloucester CityThe model puts Gloucester City at 58%. Gloucester City is priced at 1.6. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gloucester City.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Malvern Town have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gloucester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
- The market leans toward Gloucester City.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Malvern Town have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Gloucester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model puts Gloucester City at 58%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Malvern Town at 20%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 47% for both teams to score.
Gloucester City is priced at 1.6. The market leans toward Gloucester City.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Malvern Town or Gloucester City?
Our model rates Gloucester City as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Malvern Town vs Gloucester City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Malvern Town wins, 0 draws, 1 Gloucester City wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. South| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uxbridge | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 17 |
| 2 |  Plymouth Parkway | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Chertsey Town | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17:10 | 13 |
| 4 |  Hanworth Villa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 13 |
| 5 |  Frome Town | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12:6 | 13 |
| 6 |  Berkhamsted | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 7 |  Taunton Town | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 20:17 | 12 |
| 8 |  Chichester City | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:12 | 12 |
| 9 |  Poole Town | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 12 |
| 10 |  Gosport Borough | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  Bath City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:6 | 11 |
| 12 |  Yate Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Evesham United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:14 | 10 |
| 14 |  Bracknell Town | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:17 | 10 |
| 15 |  Wimborne Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Basingstoke Town | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 9 |
| 17 |  Sholing | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:12 | 7 |
| 18 |  Chippenham Town | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 7 |
| 19 | Gloucester City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 20 |  Hanwell Town | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:9 | 6 |
| 21 |  Havant & Waterlooville | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 22 | Malvern Town | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7:21 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.