Anstey Nomads vs Alvechurch: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Anstey Nomadsvs
AlvechurchAnstey Nomads are on 4 wins in a row. Alvechurch are on 5 wins in a row. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The model sees this as a close contest.
- The model puts Anstey Nomads at 42%.
- The model puts Alvechurch at 30%.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
- The model gives 52% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Anstey Nomads are on 4 wins in a row. Alvechurch are on 5 wins in a row.
Anstey Nomads have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Alvechurch have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Anstey Nomads is priced at 2.15. Alvechurch is priced at 3.005. The market frames this as a close contest.
The model puts the draw at 28%. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Anstey Nomads or Alvechurch?
Our model rates Anstey Nomads as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Anstey Nomads vs Alvechurch?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Anstey Nomads wins, 0 draws, 1 Alvechurch wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. Central| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Bedford | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22:7 | 21 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 3 |  Bury Town | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15:7 | 18 |
| 4 |  Bromsgrove | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13:5 | 18 |
| 5 |  Kettering Town | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10:2 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Rushall Olympic | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13:11 | 12 |
| 8 |  Leiston | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:12 | 11 |
| 9 |  Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:11 | 10 |
| 10 |  Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:11 | 10 |
| 11 |  Stourbridge | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 12 |  Peterborough Sports | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 13 |  Redditch United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 14 |  Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:8 | 9 |
| 15 |  Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 16 |  Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:15 | 5 |
| 17 |  Worcester City | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:10 | 5 |
| 18 |  Leamington | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:13 | 5 |
| 19 |  Banbury United | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:13 | 5 |
| 20 |  Hitchin Town | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 21 |  Stratford Town | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4:13 | 3 |
| 22 |  Stamford | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1:21 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.