Heerenveen vs Excelsior: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heerenveenvs
ExcelsiorThe model puts Heerenveen at 60%. The model leans toward Heerenveen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Heerenveen.
- −Excelsior score more per game (1.0 at home vs 3.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Excelsior (4-2-9).
- +Heerenveen creates more chances (16 vs 13 shots per game).
- +Heerenveen controls more of the ball (54% vs 35%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Heerenveen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heerenveen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heerenveen will be without Proper D..
- Excelsior will be without Naujoks.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Heerenveen at 60%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Excelsior at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Heerenveen. Heerenveen is priced at 1.57. The draw is priced at 4.42. Excelsior is priced at 5.25.
Heerenveen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Excelsior have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Heerenveen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Heerenveen average 1 goals per game this season. Heerenveen average 54% possession. Excelsior average 3 goals per game this season. Excelsior average 35% possession.
The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Heerenveen or Excelsior?
Our model rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Heerenveen wins, 2 draws, 9 Excelsior wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.