De Graafschap vs Den Bosch: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
De Graafschapvs
Den BoschThe model puts De Graafschap at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Den Bosch.
- +The head-to-head record favours De Graafschap (8-4-3).
- −De Graafschap are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- De Graafschap have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Den Bosch have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- De Graafschap have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- De Graafschap will be without Schoppema, Kok T., Meerstadt.
- Den Bosch will be without Akmum.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts De Graafschap at 46%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Den Bosch at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward De Graafschap. De Graafschap is priced at 2. The draw is priced at 4.1. Den Bosch is priced at 3.06.
De Graafschap have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Den Bosch have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
De Graafschap have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Den Bosch have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, De Graafschap or Den Bosch?
Our model rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 De Graafschap wins, 4 draws, 3 Den Bosch wins.
Match statistics
De Graafschap
- 1Viggers
- 3Besselink
- 7van Zijl
- 8Warmerdam D.
- 9Kania
- 10de Jong
- 11Mero
- 14Болк
- 16Martens
- 20Finocchiaro
- 21Simons
- Schoppema (Questionable)
- Kok T. (Missing Player)
- Meerstadt (Questionable)
Den Bosch
- 1Van de Merbel
- 6Felida
- 8Monzialo
- 9Karlsson Grach
- 10De Corte
- 16Wang
- 18Eikelboom
- 22Fortes J.
- 25Broker
- 33Laros
- 40Boumassaoudi
- Akmum (Questionable)
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  VVV-Venlo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 4 |  Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 8 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Emmen | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 10 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 11 |  NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Volendam | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 | Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Oss | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 20 | De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.