NAC Breda vs Eindhoven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
NAC Bredavs
EindhovenThe model puts NAC Breda at 69%. The model leans toward NAC Breda. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- NAC Breda have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- NAC Breda have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- NAC Breda will be without Thomas Goos.
- NAC Breda is priced at 1.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts NAC Breda at 69%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Eindhoven at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward NAC Breda. NAC Breda is priced at 1.33. The draw is priced at 5.1. Eindhoven is priced at 7.65.
NAC Breda have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Eindhoven have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
NAC Breda have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Eindhoven are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, NAC Breda or Eindhoven?
Our model rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Eindhoven?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 NAC Breda wins, 5 draws, 4 Eindhoven wins.
Match statistics
NAC Breda
- 1Verrips
- 2Lucassen
- 4Greiml
- 6Balard
- 7Brym Ch.A.
- 8Jensen F.
- 9Soumano
- 10Nasso
- 12Van den Bergh J.
- 22Hillen
- 78Van Hecke J.
- Thomas Goos (Questionable)
Eindhoven
- 1Borgmans
- 4Poortvliet
- 6Beaumont
- 7Deenen
- 8Blomme
- 9van Veen
- 13Bryson
- 19Baartmans
- 20ван де Рит
- 29Ali
- 44Renfrum
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles Almelo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 24:10 | 18 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  VVV-Venlo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19:11 | 15 |
| 4 |  Waalwijk | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 18:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  Vitesse | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  MVV Maastricht | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 8 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 9 |  Emmen | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:17 | 12 |
| 10 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 11 | NAC Breda | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:15 | 10 |
| 12 | Eindhoven | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Volendam | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 17:14 | 9 |
| 14 |  Helmond Sport | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Oss | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  De Graafschap | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:20 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.