Le Mans vs Toulouse: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Le Mansvs
ToulouseThe model puts Toulouse at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Le Mans.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Le Mans are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Le Mans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toulouse have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Mans have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Le Mans will be without Bourabaa, Colas, Rossignol.
- Toulouse will be without Vignolo.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Le Mans at 30%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Toulouse at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Le Mans is priced at 3.01. The draw is priced at 3.48. Toulouse is priced at 2.31.
Le Mans have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Toulouse have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Le Mans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Toulouse have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Le Mans average 2 goals per game this season. Le Mans average 51% possession. Toulouse average 2 goals per game this season. Toulouse average 55% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Le Mans or Toulouse?
Our model rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Le Mans vs Toulouse?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Le Mans wins, 4 draws, 6 Toulouse wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille OSC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Stade Rennais | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:10 | 13 |
| 4 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:8 | 11 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 9 |  Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | 8 |
| 10 |  RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 12 |  Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 13 |  Olympique de Marseille | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.