Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruz Azulvs
Deportivo TolucaThe model puts Cruz Azul at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Toluca (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruz Azul is priced at 2.64.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 37%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cruz Azul is priced at 2.64. The draw is priced at 3.15. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 2.56.
Cruz Azul have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Toluca have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or Deportivo Toluca?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs Deportivo Toluca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Cruz Azul wins, 4 draws, 7 Deportivo Toluca wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:8 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club America | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:8 | 17 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:10 | 13 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 9 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 10 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 12 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.