Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Getafevs
Rayo VallecanoThe model puts Rayo Vallecano at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Rayo Vallecano.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Getafe have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Getafe have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rayo Vallecano is priced at 2.595.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 17 | 6 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Getafe at 32%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Getafe is priced at 2.86. The draw is priced at 3.144. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 2.595.
Getafe have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Rayo Vallecano have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Getafe have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Getafe average 0 goals per game this season. Getafe average 48% possession. Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Getafe or Rayo Vallecano?
Our model rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Getafe wins, 7 draws, 5 Rayo Vallecano wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:17 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6:15 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.